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International Monetary Fund forecast has improved global growth in 2010, according to a new report
IMF World Economic Outlook, growth in world GDP in 2010 could reach 4.2%, which by 0,3% more than the fund projected in January. In this case, the IMF forecast relative to world growth in 2011 has not changed and remained at 4.3%. "Global recession has been avoided. The world economy is gradually recovering, and more successfully than expected "- happy IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard.
Due to the higher-than-expected pace of global economic recovery, the IMF fell by $ 533 billion its estimate of losses of the global financial sector during the global crisis. "The improving economic conditions and financial market conditions have reduced the expected write-off of bank assets $ 2.8 trillion. to $ 2.28 trillion. and the state bank capital has improved significantly, "- says the IMF report. Only on the banking system of the U.S. assessment of damages was reduced from $ 1.03 trillion. up to $ 885 billion According to IMF estimates, the estimate of losses on loans of banks was reduced by 13% compared with the October report - up to $ 1.65 trillion. and score losses on bank securities has been reduced by 31,3% - to $ 629 billion
Developing countries 'emerging markets' being restored after the crisis quickly others, helping to accelerate global growth. The highest growth rates expected in Asia, where in 2010 they could reach 8,7%. Leaders global recovery this year will be China, India, Brazil and Mexico. According to the forecast Fund, China's economy in 2010 will increase by 10% and in 2011 - 9,9%. Economic growth India in 2010 was 8,8% in 2011 - 8,4%. Brazilian economy in 2010 increased by 5,5% in 2011 - 4,1%. Mexico's GDP in 2010 to grow by 4.2% in 2011 - 4,5%. The Russian economy in 2010 will grow 4% in 2011 to 3,3%.
world's largest economy - U.S. economic growth outpace Europe and Japan, but will lag behind China and other developing countries. According to the IMF, in 2010 the U.S. economy was 3,1% in 2011 - 2,6%. Japan's GDP in 2010 increased by 1,9% in 2011 - at 2%. At the same time in Europe in the 16 euro zone countries the pace of economic growth in 2010 will amount to only 1%. The German economy - Europe's largest - in 2010 increased by 1,2% in 2011 - by 1,7%. Not included in the euro zone, the UK economy in 2010 could grow by 1,3% in 2011 - by 2,5%.
«In the U.S. consumers, who before the crisis were the main driving force of economic growth, behave more prudently. In Europe, where banks play a major role in financial intermediation, the weakness of the banking sector limits the amount of lending. In Japan resumed Deflation, which leads to higher interest rates and jeopardize the already weak economic recovery "- explains Olivier Blanchard.
economists estimate IMF, world trade in goods and services, which in 2009 fell by more than 10% in 2010 to grow by 7% in 2011 - another 6.1%. The average price for oil on the basis of data on the futures delivery market is expected to reach $ 80 per barrel in 2010 and $ 83 - in 2011 In 2009, it was about $ 62 per barrel.
IMF experts are calling for a "smooth redistribution of demand from the public to the private sector and from countries with excessive external deficits for countries with excessive surpluses. " Under first means primarily the United States and other developed powers, and under a second - fast-growing developing economies. The IMF hopes that China and other developing countries "in the face of large capital inflows will be able to absorb this influx and to nurture domestic demand, not creating prerequisites for a new cyclical downturn.
IMF warns that if the developed countries are not able to contain the rapid growth of state debt, it could have dire consequences for the global economy. "We need to ensure fiscal consolidation in developed countries to adjust exchange rates and re-balancing the demand around the world - all of these tasks need to be addressed leaders of the countries in the next few years ", - says Olivier Blanchard.
Under the IMF's fiscal consolidation involves policies aimed at reducing the budget deficit and reducing goszadolzhennosti. "Many countries need to urgently develop and adopt a strategy to curb the growth of government debt and its subsequent reduction to a more prudent level ", - wrote the authors of the report of the IMF.
Source: http://world.eizvestia.com
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